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## <strong>⏳ Results Pending for January 22</strong><br/>
## <p style="margin-bottom: 5px;">NBA API hasn't published yesterday's game stats yet</p>
## <p style="margin-bottom: 5px;"><strong>Bets placed yesterday:</strong> 104</p>
## <p style="margin-bottom: 5px;"><strong>Latest stats available:</strong> January 21, 2026</p>
## <p style="margin: 0; font-size: 0.9em; color: #666;">Results will appear automatically on the next pipeline run after the NBA API publishes game data.</p>
## </div>
## No results available
## <div style="background: #fff3cd; padding: 10px; border-radius: 5px; margin-bottom: 10px; border-left: 4px solid #ffc107;">
## <strong>Note:</strong> Yesterday's bets (104 placed) are pending results. Chart will update once NBA API publishes game stats.</div>
Remember: Points = UNDERS | Rebounds = OVERS | Assists = OVERS
## No High confidence Rebounds picks today
## No High confidence Assists picks today
## No Medium confidence Assists picks today
THE RULES ARE SIMPLE:
| Prop Type | Bet Direction | Why |
|---|---|---|
| POINTS | UNDERS only | Model underpredicts scoring |
| REBOUNDS | OVERS only | Lines are set too low |
| ASSISTS | OVERS only | Lines are set too low |
| Prop | Bet Type | Win Rate | ROI | Edge Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Under | 55-57% | +15-35% | 3+ pts |
| Rebounds | Over | 87-91% | +70-90% | 2+ reb |
| Assists | Over | 92-97% | +80-110% | 2+ ast |
Elastic Net Regression - A regularized linear model that predicts player stats using recent performance data.
| Prop Type | Bet Direction | Status | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | UNDERS | Production | 55-57% | +15-35% |
| Rebounds | OVERS | Production | 87-91% | +70-90% |
| Assists | OVERS | Production | 92-97% | +80-110% |
The points model systematically underpredicts player scoring, which makes UNDERS profitable.
Features used (12 total):
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| roll_pts_3/5/7/9 | Rolling points average over 3, 5, 7, 9 games |
| roll_mp_3/5 | Rolling minutes played |
| roll_usg_3/5 | Rolling usage percentage |
| roll_3pa_3 | Rolling 3-point attempts |
| career_avg_pts | Career points average |
| roll_pts_sd_5 | Scoring variability (5-game std dev) |
| days_rest | Days since last game |
Backtest results (walk-forward):
| Strategy | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| All bets | 48% | -8% |
| Overs only | 44% | -15% |
| Unders only | 55% | +18% |
| Unders + 4pt edge | 57% | +25% |
Betting rule: UNDERS only with 3+ point edge
The rebounds model finds that sportsbook lines are set too low on rebounds, making OVERS profitable.
Features used (12 total):
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| roll_trb_3/5/7/9 | Rolling total rebounds over 3, 5, 7, 9 games |
| roll_mp_3/5 | Rolling minutes played |
| roll_orb_5, roll_drb_5 | Offensive/defensive rebounds |
| career_avg_trb | Career rebounds average |
| roll_trb_sd_5 | Rebounding variability |
| reb_per_min | Rebounds per minute rate |
| days_rest | Days since last game |
Backtest results (walk-forward):
| Edge Threshold | Win Rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ rebounds | 87% | +70% | High volume |
| 3+ rebounds | 90% | +85% | Medium volume |
| 4+ rebounds | 91% | +90% | Lower volume |
Betting rule: OVERS only with 2+ rebound edge
The assists model shows the strongest edge - sportsbook lines significantly undervalue player assists.
Features used (12 total):
| Feature | Description |
|---|---|
| roll_ast_3/5/7/9 | Rolling assists over 3, 5, 7, 9 games |
| roll_mp_3/5 | Rolling minutes played |
| roll_tov_5 | Rolling turnovers |
| ast_to_ratio | Assist-to-turnover ratio |
| career_avg_ast | Career assists average |
| roll_ast_sd_5 | Assist variability |
| ast_per_min | Assists per minute rate |
| days_rest | Days since last game |
Backtest results (walk-forward):
| Edge Threshold | Win Rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ assists | 92% | +80% | High volume |
| 3+ assists | 95% | +100% | Medium volume |
| 4+ assists | 97% | +110% | Lower volume |
Betting rule: OVERS only with 2+ assist edge
| Rule | Requirement |
|---|---|
| Bet Type | UNDERS only |
| Min Edge | 3+ points |
| Max Odds | -150 or better |
| HIGH conf | 4+ point edge |
| Rule | Requirement |
|---|---|
| Bet Type | OVERS only |
| Min Edge | 2+ rebounds |
| Max Odds | -150 or better |
| HIGH conf | 4+ rebound edge |
| Rule | Requirement |
|---|---|
| Bet Type | OVERS only |
| Min Edge | 2+ assists |
| Max Odds | -150 or better |
| HIGH conf | 4+ assist edge |
Generated 2026-01-23 18:22 ET