Yesterday’s Results

Summary

## <div style="background: #fff3cd; padding: 15px; border-radius: 8px; border-left: 4px solid #ffc107; margin-bottom: 15px;">
## <strong>⏳ Results Pending for January 22</strong><br/>
## <p style="margin-bottom: 5px;">NBA API hasn't published yesterday's game stats yet</p>
## <p style="margin-bottom: 5px;"><strong>Bets placed yesterday:</strong> 104</p>
## <p style="margin-bottom: 5px;"><strong>Latest stats available:</strong> January 21, 2026</p>
## <p style="margin: 0; font-size: 0.9em; color: #666;">Results will appear automatically on the next pipeline run after the NBA API publishes game data.</p>
## </div>

Points

High Confidence

## No results available

Medium Confidence

Rebounds

High Confidence

Medium Confidence

Assists

High Confidence

Medium Confidence

All Results

Recent Performance

Last 30 Days

## <div style="background: #fff3cd; padding: 10px; border-radius: 5px; margin-bottom: 10px; border-left: 4px solid #ffc107;">
## <strong>Note:</strong> Yesterday's bets (104 placed) are pending results. Chart will update once NBA API publishes game stats.</div>

Current Season

Performance Chart

Today’s Picks

Remember: Points = UNDERS | Rebounds = OVERS | Assists = OVERS

Points

High Confidence

Medium Confidence

Rebounds

High Confidence

## No High confidence Rebounds picks today

Medium Confidence

Assists

High Confidence

## No High confidence Assists picks today

Medium Confidence

## No Medium confidence Assists picks today

All Picks

Historical Backtest

All-Time P&L

Season Summary

Strategy Stats

Quick Reference

What To Bet Today

THE RULES ARE SIMPLE:

Prop Type Bet Direction Why
POINTS UNDERS only Model underpredicts scoring
REBOUNDS OVERS only Lines are set too low
ASSISTS OVERS only Lines are set too low

How To Use This Report

  1. Check Yesterday’s Results - See how bets performed
  2. Review Today’s Picks - Filter by prop type and confidence
  3. Place High/Medium confidence bets - Skip Low confidence
  4. Use the recommended sportsbook - Already line-shopped for best odds

Quick Stats from Backtest

Prop Bet Type Win Rate ROI Edge Threshold
Points Under 55-57% +15-35% 3+ pts
Rebounds Over 87-91% +70-90% 2+ reb
Assists Over 92-97% +80-110% 2+ ast

Methodology

The Model

Elastic Net Regression - A regularized linear model that predicts player stats using recent performance data.

Active Prop Types

Prop Type Bet Direction Status Win Rate ROI
Points UNDERS Production 55-57% +15-35%
Rebounds OVERS Production 87-91% +70-90%
Assists OVERS Production 92-97% +80-110%

How It Works

  1. Calculate features from player’s recent 3-9 games
  2. Model predicts expected stat (points/rebounds/assists)
  3. Compare to line = calculate edge (prediction vs sportsbook line)
  4. Filter by direction - Points: UNDERS | Rebounds & Assists: OVERS
  5. Require minimum edge - 2-3+ depending on prop type

Points Model

The points model systematically underpredicts player scoring, which makes UNDERS profitable.

Features used (12 total):

Feature Description
roll_pts_3/5/7/9 Rolling points average over 3, 5, 7, 9 games
roll_mp_3/5 Rolling minutes played
roll_usg_3/5 Rolling usage percentage
roll_3pa_3 Rolling 3-point attempts
career_avg_pts Career points average
roll_pts_sd_5 Scoring variability (5-game std dev)
days_rest Days since last game

Backtest results (walk-forward):

Strategy Win Rate ROI
All bets 48% -8%
Overs only 44% -15%
Unders only 55% +18%
Unders + 4pt edge 57% +25%

Betting rule: UNDERS only with 3+ point edge

Rebounds Model

The rebounds model finds that sportsbook lines are set too low on rebounds, making OVERS profitable.

Features used (12 total):

Feature Description
roll_trb_3/5/7/9 Rolling total rebounds over 3, 5, 7, 9 games
roll_mp_3/5 Rolling minutes played
roll_orb_5, roll_drb_5 Offensive/defensive rebounds
career_avg_trb Career rebounds average
roll_trb_sd_5 Rebounding variability
reb_per_min Rebounds per minute rate
days_rest Days since last game

Backtest results (walk-forward):

Edge Threshold Win Rate ROI Bets
2+ rebounds 87% +70% High volume
3+ rebounds 90% +85% Medium volume
4+ rebounds 91% +90% Lower volume

Betting rule: OVERS only with 2+ rebound edge

Assists Model

The assists model shows the strongest edge - sportsbook lines significantly undervalue player assists.

Features used (12 total):

Feature Description
roll_ast_3/5/7/9 Rolling assists over 3, 5, 7, 9 games
roll_mp_3/5 Rolling minutes played
roll_tov_5 Rolling turnovers
ast_to_ratio Assist-to-turnover ratio
career_avg_ast Career assists average
roll_ast_sd_5 Assist variability
ast_per_min Assists per minute rate
days_rest Days since last game

Backtest results (walk-forward):

Edge Threshold Win Rate ROI Bets
2+ assists 92% +80% High volume
3+ assists 95% +100% Medium volume
4+ assists 97% +110% Lower volume

Betting rule: OVERS only with 2+ assist edge

Betting Rules Summary

Points

Rule Requirement
Bet Type UNDERS only
Min Edge 3+ points
Max Odds -150 or better
HIGH conf 4+ point edge

Rebounds

Rule Requirement
Bet Type OVERS only
Min Edge 2+ rebounds
Max Odds -150 or better
HIGH conf 4+ rebound edge

Assists

Rule Requirement
Bet Type OVERS only
Min Edge 2+ assists
Max Odds -150 or better
HIGH conf 4+ assist edge

Generated 2026-01-23 18:22 ET